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Forum:2017-18 Australian Region cyclone season
Betting pools for this page Related Pages: *2017-18 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season (Betting pools) *2017-18 South Pacific cyclone season (Betting pools) November TCWC Jakarta Tropical Low (93S.INVEST) The first invest of the season is here (I think). It's currently in TCWC Jakarta's region and I doubt it will become anything significant. ~ Steve Talk Page 02:49, November 10, 2017 (UTC) :There was one in August, but this forum wasn't created yet. However, this one is much weaker and probably won't be anything. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 11:43, November 10, 2017 (UTC) 02U.CEMPAKA 95S.INVEST New one up on Tropical Tidbits/NRL located just south of Jakarta. ~ Steve Talk Page 03:13, November 20, 2017 (UTC) This looks like something we'll have to watch. Models spin it up into a pretty strong cyclone in a couple days. Hilda anyone? - Garfield : Now low chance on JTWC. This has some real potential to be Hilda. Here comes the first TC of the SHem season! ~ Steve Talk Page 21:08, November 21, 2017 (UTC) : Off JTWC, but still active as an invest. ~ Steve �� Happy 19:49, November 23, 2017 (UTC) : On JWTC again as ~~Low chances~~ JoeBillyBob (talk) 12:28, November 26, 2017 (UTC) Code yellow again. ~ Steve Talk Page 03:05, November 26, 2017 (UTC) !CODE RED!(ON JTWC)!WARNING! JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:22, November 27, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Cempaka aaaaaand its here and not expected to develop further. JoeBillyBob (talk) 05:05, November 29, 2017 (UTC) :This is the first TCWC Jakarta system since Bakung of December 2014. Not very often do we see storms here. Anyway this should remain weak. ~ Steve Talk Page 22:18, November 27, 2017 (UTC) :actually,the latest bulletin from TCWC Jakarta says it;s going to intensify to 45 knots or more JoeBillyBob (talk) 12:06, November 28, 2017 (UTC) ::Not too bad for a TCWC Jakarta storm so far. Hi!- 14:34, November 28, 2017 (UTC) :::Wikipedia reports that the cyclone has already caused 11 fatalities. :( ~ Steve Talk Page 23:37, November 28, 2017 (UTC) ::::JTWC just cancelled their TCFA. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:46, November 29, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Depression Cempaka Oh well.Congrats on being the earliest named storm since 2013 and the earliest TCWC named storm since 2007! JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:02, November 29, 2017 (UTC) Remnants of Cempaka Has been dropped by TCWC Jakarta, and TCWC Perth doesn't expect much redevelopment. JTWC has also dropped it. ~ Steve Talk Page 21:47, November 29, 2017 (UTC) 03U.DAHLIA 96S.INVEST Code yellow on JTWC and located west of Sumatra. ~ Steve �� Happy 19:49, November 23, 2017 (UTC) :Now orange. ~ Steve Talk Page 03:05, November 26, 2017 (UTC) : Tropical Low 03U Now numbered as "03U". Also TCWC Jakarta forecasts it to intensify into a C1 tropical cyclone. Could we already see Dahlia? Two TCWC Jakarta named storms within the span of a week would be insane, considering how inactive it usually is there. ~ Steve Talk Page 23:37, November 28, 2017 (UTC) There is a TCFA on JTWC now. JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:07, November 29, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Dahlia And so we do. I wonder if this made the record books for the most active start to the TCWC area of responsibility. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] My Birthday 20:51, November 29, 2017 (UTC) Sadly,I think 2001-02 did better. JoeBillyBob (talk) 21:21, November 29, 2017 (UTC) :That was in the span of a whole season, not two days. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] My Birthday ::This is actually the first time there have been 2 or more TCWC Jakarta named systems during the whole season since they took over the region in 2007. Even stranger, it's within the span of a week! :O Obviously the most active start in TCWC Jakarta records dating to 2007. Current intensity of Dahlia is 40 mph/998 mbars. ~ Steve Talk Page 21:47, November 29, 2017 (UTC) :::Ikr. That was the strangest thing that had ever happened to this basin. Hi!- 14:33, November 30, 2017 (UTC) ::::Yep, it surely is. Current intensity is 50 mph/993 mbars. TCWC Perth forecasts a C3 (Australian scale) cyclone. ~ Steve Talk Page 02:32, December 1, 2017 (UTC) ::::Now 60 mph and a category 2,according to TCWC's darwin and perth. JoeBillyBob (talk) 08:36, December 1, 2017 (UTC) :::::Downgraded to a Category 1, 40 mph/996 mbar. Hi!- 18:43, December 2, 2017 (UTC) ::::::And expected to weaken further. At least it is staying out to sea and never harmed anyone, unlike the deadly Cempaka and Ockhi... ~ Steve Talk Page 01:09, December 3, 2017 (UTC) Ex-Tropical Cyclone Dahlia Just after writing the above post, I checked BOM and it has unexpectedly dissipated. Might reintensify to a C1 though. ~ Steve Talk Page 01:27, December 3, 2017 (UTC) : Actually I don't think that materialized. Now not expected to redevelop. ~ Steve Talk Page 02:00, December 5, 2017 (UTC) TCWC Darwin Tropical Low there is another tropical low in the Australian basin. JoeBillyBob (talk) 00:24, November 25, 2017 (UTC) :In the Banda Sea and not expected to develop. ~ Steve Talk Page 03:10, November 26, 2017 (UTC) :long dead.... JoeBillyBob (talk) 22:53, November 29, 2017 (UTC) December Tropical Low west of the Timor Sea (97S.INVEST) Another one expected to move southwest into roughly where Dahlia is supposed to be now. Not going to develop though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:01, December 1, 2017 (UTC) : Yeah, it won't develop tbh. And it appears to have been invested, because 97S is up in this region on Tropical Tidbits. ~ Steve Talk Page 01:10, December 3, 2017 (UTC) :Dead ~ Steve Talk Page 01:58, December 5, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Low south of the Solomon Islands (98P.INVEST) Being monitored on BOM's eastern outlook. See the South Pacific forum for a couple more posts concerning this system. Highly doubt this will become much. ~ Steve Talk Page 01:58, December 5, 2017 (UTC) : It dissipated. Hi!- 14:24, December 6, 2017 (UTC) Timor Sea tropical low Currently on TCWC Darwin and TCWC Jakarta's outlooks. It's doubtful if this will be anything significant, however. ~ Steve �� Happy 06:32, December 24, 2017 (UTC) :Actually, I think I got things mixed up. This might actually have been the below system. ~ Steve �� Happy 21:33, December 26, 2017 (UTC) 02S.HILDA Tropical low just north of the Indonesian Archipelago (92S.INVEST) Not yet a full-fledged tropical low as of the time of this writing. However, it has a decent chance to develop in the long run. TCWC Perth has it up with a "moderate" chance for Tuesday and it could track towards the north Kimberley coast. Hilda, anyone? ~ Steve �� Happy 06:32, December 24, 2017 (UTC) :Actually, Steve, this is supposed to become a 905 mbar C5 by December 26. This will be very significant. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] My Birthday 13:59, December 24, 2017 (UTC) ::BoM gives this a high chance of developing into a TC by 28 December. There again both the GFS and ECMWF don't do too much with this right now, likely due to land interaction. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:24, December 25, 2017 (UTC) :::I feel like we will going to see another destructive cyclone. Hi!- 20:15, December 25, 2017 (UTC) ::::The JTWC has it on code orange. It is Invest 92S as per the JTWC.-- 05:05, December 26, 2017 (UTC) The BOM is forecasting a C1 (Aus. scale) cyclone could come out of this. Land interaction with the region around Broome should prevent this from becoming a monster. And TG, whatever crazy unreliable model you were looking at didn't materialize. There was no way for this system to rapidly develop into a C5 in only 2 days (from the time of your post to today, the 26th). I'd look up more realistic models if I wanted to post about it. ~ Steve �� Happy 21:33, December 26, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Hilda it's here.45 mph/990 mbar.JoeBillyBob (talk) 11:29, December 27, 2017 (UTC) 60 mph/985 mbar,even though it's over land rn.JoeBillyBob (talk) 22:15, December 27, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Low Hilda now a TD.998 mbar/35mph..JoeBillyBob (talk) 09:06, December 28, 2017 (UTC) :Yeah this is going to be gone soon. And Steve, didn't you see the GFS run from December 23? [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] My Birthday 00:36, December 29, 2017 (UTC) ::I don't really check models that often. Surprising that the GFS would forecast such a monster within a short span of time. Anyway, this was a short-lived weak named storm. It was close to land so that was to be expected. It's still on BOM's western region outlook as a tropical low, but otherwise it's dead. ~ Steve �� Happy 06:42, December 29, 2017 (UTC) January 04S.IRVING Tropical Low Southwest of Sumatra Up on BOM's western outlook with a "low" chance on Saturday, before it moves out of region. Might have long run potential though ~ Steve �� 2018 06:43, January 3, 2018 (UTC) 95S.INVEST Now invested, and BOM gives it a "high" chance for Saturday. Code yellow on JTWC, and code red on TCWC Reunion's outlook. This is likely to become Berguitta in the SWIO, unless it suddenly intensifies before then. ~ Steve �� 2018 06:55, January 5, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Irving It has been named as a tropical system before crossing into the SWIO basin. Further comments can be made on that respective forum page. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:57, January 7, 2018 (UTC) 09U.JOYCE Tropical Low 09U Currently in the Timor Sea and expected to move towards the northern Kimberly coast. This has a "high" chance for Wednesday, and could be a candidate for Joyce. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:57, January 7, 2018 (UTC) :Yep, I think you're right. This could become Joyce and then cross into SWIO. GFS brings it to 955-960 millibars while in the SWIO. It could at least become a C3 (Aus) before crossing out of the basin. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 22:03, January 8, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Joyce Now a category 1 system according to BOM, and affecting the area between Broome and Port Hedland. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 04:47, January 12, 2018 (UTC) Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Joyce Died off three days ago. Hi!- 14:33, January 17, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Low east of Christmas Island Although mentioned on BOM's western outlook, it is very doubtful that this will develop. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:57, January 7, 2018 (UTC) :Apparently it dissipated. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 22:05, January 8, 2018 (UTC) : Trough near Coco Islands Has a "Low" chance through the weekend. Very doubtful that this will develop, though. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 04:47, January 12, 2018 (UTC) :Long dead. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 00:03, January 20, 2018 (UTC) 11L.NONAME 90P/90S.INVEST Located near Top End, but strangely has two invest designations. According to BOM, the risk for a tropical cyclone increases for northern Western Australia next week. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 00:03, January 20, 2018 (UTC) currently at a pressure of 999 hPa...I think.JoeBillyBob (talk) 06:18, January 22, 2018 (UTC) pretty much dead,and expected to stay well inland. :Yep, this won't develop anymore. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 05:50, January 28, 2018 (UTC) ::Actually, JTWC put this up as code yellow. It's doubtful that this will move back out to sea and develop though. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:16, January 29, 2018 (UTC) ::Moving back out to seaa with a code yellow.JoeBillyBob (talk) 20:22, January 29, 2018 (UTC) ::: Off of JTWC for a while now. And I already posted that JTWC had it up as code yellow at that time. Unfortunately, this tropical low was worse than Hilda and Joyce. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 21:36, February 3, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Low east southeast of the Cocos Islands Currently on BOM's western outlook as a tropical low in a monsoon trough, but highly unlikely to develop. It's expected to drift towards the Cocos Islands. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 00:03, January 20, 2018 (UTC) : Dead. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 03:04, January 22, 2018 (UTC) GFS low (92P.INVEST) currently only on tropical tidbits. Off the east coast with a 'Moderate' chance for sunday.JoeBillyBob (talk) 17:11, January 27, 2018 (UTC) :If I'm getting it right, this is now TC 08P/06F in the SPac. See that basin forum for more information regarding this system. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 05:54, January 28, 2018 (UTC) 96P.INVEST BOM is giving this a "moderate" chance for Thursday. The risk for a TC increases in this area in the near future due to a strengthening monsoon flow. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:19, January 29, 2018 (UTC) Code Yellow on jtwc.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:36, February 1, 2018 (UTC) :No longer on JTWC. TCWC Wellington is actually calling this system "Tropical depression 96P". Extremely unlikely to develop further though. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:23, February 2, 2018 (UTC) February 99P.INVEST BOM's eastern outlook says that a tropical low may form here. TC development is somewhat possible this weekend, with a "low" chance for Friday and Saturday. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 01:19, February 8, 2018 (UTC) : It's now a "very low" chance and won't develop anymore. Goodbye failed invest. For the record, this invest was in the Coral Sea region. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:35, February 12, 2018 (UTC) 17U.NONAME 91P/S.INVEST Currently in TCWC Darwin's area of responsibility. Pressure is 1007 mb. It's expected to move towards the Kimberly coast in the coming days, with a low chance of development for Wednesday and Thursday. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:38, February 12, 2018 (UTC) Has two invest designations,but has a code orange on JTWC and a moderate chance for Friday.No.1 Mobile (talk) 00:35, February 14, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Low 17U Now designated by BOM, and has a "high" chance of development starting Friday (western region outlook). Code orange on JTWC. Here comes Kelvin! ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:49, February 14, 2018 (UTC) :Not developing.here's hoping it doesn't bust.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:36, February 17, 2018 (UTC) ::It’s about to make landfall in Australia. Not going to be named though. -- 04:25, February 17, 2018 (UTC) :::It's not moving that quickly, landfall is more than 24 hours away. Which means, unfortunately, it will have time to intensify. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:36, February 17, 2018 (UTC) Retirements at a glance TG's Retirements Cempaka was a notable storm so I guess it won't hurt to begin this now: (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)(Category colors: C1, C2, C3, C4, C5) *'Cempaka': 20% - I really had to put some thought into this one. TCWC Jakarta has not retired a name before, but 41 fatalities were caused by this storm in Indonesia, near the Jakarta area. I am not confident about retirement, but it's still a notable storm, even though it was a failicia. *'Dahlia': 0% - It had the potential to strike Australia as a C3 storm on the Aus scale, but it instead recurved back out to sea and dissipated. *'Hilda': 10% - Like Cempaka, I don't feel confident about retirement, but Australia is very strange with retirements. *'Irving': 0% - Irving didn't even last as a named storm for two days before crossing into the SWIO basin, becoming a slightly more interesting storm there. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 22:00, January 8, 2018 (UTC)